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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Coming in On Texas'

florinebiddlec edited this page 2025-01-01 23:18:03 -06:00

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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, offering lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. A minimum of in two cases.

Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the money is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market also. Keep in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded gamer."

Even though highly regarded cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are stacking on Texas.

"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.

While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We chatted with numerous bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has crept up slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The . "I wouldn't be shocked if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State cash."

Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly higher bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.

"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over so far.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."

He did note, though, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What caused the line flip? Basically, the sports betting action.
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Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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